Pakistan’s local cement dispatches to be up by 13% YoY in 1 HFY26

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan local cement dispatches are likely to be up by 4% on YoY basis to clock in at 3.59mn tons in Dec-2025. Similarly, on MoM basis, local dispatches are anticipated to be up 1%.
“Our analysis is based on the actual numbers for 21 days, where local sales stand at 2.37mn tons. However, our channel checks suggest that local sales for 25 days are approximately 2.89mn tons,” Topline Securities.
The average daily domestic sales in the North were 101k tons in the first week (working days), declined to 89k tons per day in the second week, and then rose to 121k tons per day in the third week. Sales in the last week have further improved, reaching over 120–125k tons per day in the North.
Average sales of south region remained in the range of 16-18k per day in 21 days.
Local cement dispatches increased slightly by 1% MoM, remaining largely stable, as sales and dispatch activity continue to be affected by the typical slowdown during the winter season.
Exports during Dec 2025 are anticipated to decline by 42% YoY and 24% MoM. The MoM drop in exports is due to continued border disruptions and political instability along the Afghan border.
This takes Pakistan’s total cement sales to around 4.04mn tons in Dec-2025, expected to be down by 5% YoY and 2% MoM.
In 1HFY26, total cement sales are expected to increase by around 9% YoY, driven by a 13% YoY growth in local sales, while exports are anticipated to decline by 7% YoY.
Total cement capacity utilization in Dec-25 is estimated at 57%, remaining stable compared to 57.4% in Nov-25 and 59% in Dec-24.
Average retail cement prices in the northern region increased by Rs 10–15 in Dec-25, according to weekly SPI data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Prices are now at Rs 1,379/bag, up from Rs 1,361/bag at the end of Nov-25.
We maintain our base case assumption of 8% YoY growth in local dispatches due to pick up in construction activities and monetary easing,” Topeline concluded.