Pakistan’s oil and gas sector earnings seen down 15% YoY in 2QFY26

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s oil and gas sector is likely to post a 15% year-on-year (YoY) decline in earnings in 2QFY26, primarily due to lower gas production and weaker oil prices.
According to Topline Securities, oil production averaged 64.7 thousand barrels per day (bpd) during the quarter, marking a 2% YoY increase, while gas production declined 4% YoY to approximately 2,732 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd). The negative impact of lower gas volumes was further compounded by a 13% YoY decline in Arab Light crude prices, which averaged USD 65.37 per barrel in 2QFY26. Additionally, a 48% YoY fall in other income, driven by the absence of one-off gains and lower interest rates, is expected to further pressure sector profitability.
On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, sector earnings are projected to decline 7%, despite a 4% improvement in oil volumes, as the drop in gas production and weaker oil prices are likely to outweigh the gains.
OGDC: Topline Securities expects Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC) to report earnings per share (EPS) of Rs7.83, reflecting a 19% YoY and 12% QoQ decline. The drop in earnings is mainly attributed to two dry wells (Khatian and Jakhro North) drilled during the quarter, along with lower production—particularly from the Uch field, where output declined 13% YoY and 23% QoQ due to Annual Turnaround Activity (ATA). OGDC is expected to announce a cash dividend of Rs3.5 per share for 2QFY26.
PPL: Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) is expected to post EPS of Rs7.44, down 26% YoY but up 1% QoQ. The YoY decline is largely due to the absence of one-off gains recorded in 2QFY25, including an insurance claim and the reversal of impairment losses, which had boosted other income in the base period. PPL is expected to declare a cash dividend of Rs2.0 per share.
MARI: Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI) is likely to report EPS of Rs12.59, up 35% YoY but down 3% QoQ. The YoY growth is mainly driven by a reduction in operating expenses to US$2.86 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) from US$4.78/boe in 2QFY25. No interim dividend is expected in 2QFY26, in line with last year’s trend.
POL: Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) is projected to record EPS of Rs18.35, reflecting a 31% YoY and 4% QoQ decline. The YoY decrease is primarily due to a more than threefold increase in exploration costs, stemming from seismic activities in Ikhlas EL and Pariwali D&P.
“We expect POL to announce a cash dividend of Rs20 per share in 2QFY26,” Topline Securities said.