ISLAMABAD: National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) is reportedly facing a catch-22 situation with regard to IGCEP 2024-34 due to projected installation of over 8000 MW net metering, selection of either Chashma -5( C–5) Nuclear Power Plant or Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project. Prime Minister has already directed that only least cost project to be made part of the IGCEP.
Sources in NTDC told Newzshewz that revision of IGCEP 2024-34 is still under finalization and different scenarios are being simulated. With reference to this matter NPCC( System Operator) has carried out an analysis on dispatch feasibility of imported coal power plants conversion to local coal using Generation Expansion Planning tool PLEXOS based on most acceptable scenario.
Under 2015 Power Generation Policy, following imported coal- fired power pants were installed to overcome the load shedding crisis in the country.(i) Sahiwal Coal Plant (HSR)-1320 MW( ii) China Power Hub Generation (CPHGC)-1320 MW ; and (iii) Port Qasim Electric Power Company -1320.
Following is the details of IPP-wise coal mines’ capacity in each block ;(i) Shanghai Electric (TCB-1), Block-1, capacity, 7.8 MTPA( COD Feb 23);(ii) Engro Powergen Thar, Block 2(Phase-1) capacity 3.8 MTPA( COD July 10, 2019);(iii) TEL and Thal Nova, Block-2(Phase-2), capacity 3.8 MTPA(COD September 30, 2022) ; and (iv) Lucky Electric Power, Block-2(Phase-3), capacity 3.2 MTPA(COD not yet achieved.
Thar Coal & Energy Board (TCEB) in its letter in 2020 to General Manager, Power System Planning , NTDC for formulation of ” Indicative Generation Capacity Plan” has give the expansion plans for the existing blocks and future development plans according to which the existing capacity of Thar Block -1 of 7.8 MTPA will be expanded to 14.98 MTPA at variable cost $ 18.08/T and fixed cost $ 32.59/T which implies that existing generation capacity of 1320 MW will be doubled to 2640 MW.
However. the existing capacity of 7.6 MTPA of Block-II at variable cost of $ 15.68/T and fixed cost of $ 27.22/T to will be increased to 30.8 MTPA at variable cost of $ 14.71/T and fixed cost $ 16.13 /T. With this, generation capacity of Block-II will be jumped to 5280 MW from 1320 MW.
According to NPCC, during 2023-24, generation potential of Sahiwal Coal Plant was 10,893,208,920 kWh whereas its actual generation was 2,075, 155, 603, which is just 19 per cent. China Power hub Generation was 476,504,450 kWh against potential of 10,942,116,000 kWh, just 4 per cent. Port Qasim Electric Power Company’s actual generation was 781, 492,462 kWh against potential of 10,888,242,000 kWh, which was just 7 per cent of total potential.
In its analysis of conversion from import coal to local coal, NPCC has argued that after conversion, the local coal is required o be transported from Thar mines to the sites of the three IPPs. In this regard, the following scenario has been developed; transportation of coal after drying at mine site and then use dry coal in IPPs.
The assumed foreign exchange will be Rs 278.05/USD. Heat rates- Port Qasim, 9136 BTU/kWh, CPHGC, 6540 BTU/kWh, HSR, 5829 BTU/kWh and Jamshoro (Unit-1), 8254 BTU/kWh. Fixed cost( dry cost will be $ 16.2/T as shared by PPIB), variable cost(fuel cost) $ 14.97/T, Calorific value – Dry $20844 BTU/kg as per data shared by PPIB. Transportation cost/ freight charges for port Qasim Electric Power will be $ 10/T, CPHGC $ 12/T, Sahiwal Coal Plan,$ 30/T and Jamshoro $ 8/T.
NPCC analysis says that Sahiwal (HSR), Port Qasim and CPHGC are made unavailable from December 2025, December 2026 and December 2027 for conversion respectively. Then these power plants are made available for generation in January 2028, January 2029 and January 2030 onwards, respectively. NPCC further claims that a total of 8,040 MW of net metering is added during the study horizon i.e. from July 2024 to June 2034.
In this case, Business As Usual (BAU) demand with base year 2023-24 has been considered. 2.400 MW Solar Pv, 700 MW new technology, 300 MW Gwadar CFPP and all RE plants under Category-l & II are considered as candidate and these are not optimized.
CFPP capacity factors after cascading conversion are as follows;(i) CPHGC will be available on 32.1% in 2025, 35.2 % in 2026, 42.5 % in 2027 and 25% in 2028 and zero onward till 2034 whereas it will be not be available on local coal from 2025 to 2029. However, it will be available at 7.96 % in 2030, 29.3% in 2031, 47.8% in 2032, 53.6% in 2033 and 55.5% in 2034.
Port Qasim Electric Power Company on imported coal -44.6 % in 2025, 45.3% in 2026 and 53.5% in 2027 but will not be available from 2028 to 2034. It will not be available on local from 2025-2028. Later on it will be available at 39.7% in 2029 and 79.9% onwards till 2034. Sahiwal Power Plant will be available on imported coal at 0.4% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 , after that it will be available till 2034. On local coal, it will not be available in 2025 to 2027 after which will be available at 32.7 % in 2028, 17.1 % in 2029, 6.4% in 2030, 7.4 % in 2031, 15.1 % in 2032, 30.6% in 2033 and 41.2% in 2034.
CFPP capacity after cascading conversion and consideration of C-5 in 2031-32, Bhasha in 2032-33( taking least cost for their selection with LCVs).
1;- CPHGC on imported , 32.13% in 2025, 35.21 % in 2026, 42.56 % in 2027 and 25,02 % in 2028 and zero onward till 2034. On local coal, zero per cent availability from 2025 to 2029, whereas it will be available at 7.96 % in 2030, 29.42.% in 2031, 12.02 % in 2032, 2.71 % in 2033 and 5.22 % in 2034.
Port Qasim Electric Power Company on imported coal: 44.63% in 2025, 45.26% in 2026 and 53.50 % in 2027 and zero availability from 2028 to 2034. However, on local , its availability will be nill from 2025 to 2028 after which its available capacity will be 39.7 % in 2029, 79.75% in 2030, 79.75% in 2031, 79.15% in 2032, 75.17% in 2033 and 79.32% in 79.32 % in 2034.
Sahiwal Power Plant will be available on imported coal at 0.4% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 , after that it will be available till 2034. On local coal, it will not be available in 2025 to 2027 after which will be available at 32.7 % in 2028, 17.17 % in 2029, 6.43% in 2030, 7.47 % in 2031, 6.43 % in 2032, 1.11% in 2033 and 2.52 % in 2034.
NPCC is of the view that this CFPP dispatch on local will surely get effected if any change in future load demand inclusion or exclusion of any other power plant any change in solar installation i.e. 8040 MW net metering is made.
Ends
