ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said that safety and security have been major issues for most cities in Pakistan in the last few decades.
The prolonged instability in neighboring Afghanistan has significantly contributed to higher costs of doing business and economic losses in Pakistan.
Between 2001 and 2017, estimates place the cost to Pakistan due to terrorism incidents at approximately $123 billion. The impact was significant in all economic sectors. Foreign investments dried up, international experts avoided Pakistan, the pace of privatization programs slowed down, and exports plummeted.
In its latest report on Pakistan, ADB has stated that despite moderating in 2020 and 2021, Pakistan’s population growth averaged 2.55% annually in 2017–2023. This was marked by a 3.65% annual growth in urban population, nearly double that of the rural population. This brought Pakistan’s total population in 2023 to 241.5 million (16.3% more than in 2017), with an urban population of 93.8 million (approaching a fourfold increase since 1981). Recent projections place the country’s population at over 400 million by 2050, with Pakistan one of only eight countries likely to account for more than half of the world population increases until 2050. The pressure on cities mired in ever-increasing deficits in urban infrastructure and services will intensify, with urban population projected to climb to 99.4 million, or 40.7% of the country’s total, in 2030.
Pakistan’s GDP growth is projected to recover modestly to 1.9% in FY2024, with inflation easing to 25% amid significant downside risks, including global price shocks and slower global growth. These near-term growth prospects are closely tied to the successful implementation of the economic adjustment program supported by the International Monetary Fund and other bilateral and multilateral development partners. With a focus on fiscal discipline, a market-determined exchange rate, reforms in the energy sector and state-owned enterprises, expanded social and development spending, and related governance and institutional reforms, the economic adjustment program aims to stabilize the economy and rebuild fiscal and external buffers.
The high-speed growth of Pakistan’s urban population has led to a commensurate and hazardous urban sprawl. The growth of illegal developments and informal settlements that do not comply with planning rules or building codes delivers substandard living conditions, disrupts city functions, and degrades the urban environment. The associated encroachment into agricultural lands erodes future food security. With these mounting challenges of urbanization, Pakistan needs to direct greater policy, planning, and investment support to transform its cities into safe, resilient, and livable spaces, as well as economic powerhouses that provide better income, education, and livelihood opportunities.
ADB has further stated that gender inequality is deep and persistent in Pakistan. It is evident in all key indicators, such as poverty, education, health, employment, and legal rights. For example, female labor force participation ratio rose steadily from 13.7% in 2000 to 22.22% in 2014 but has fluctuated since 2015 and stood at 21.3% in 2021 (footnote 29). The same indicator for males was 67.9% in 2021.The overall employment rate was 42.1% in 2021, higher in males at 64.1% compared to females at 19.4%. Women workers tend to be concentrated in the informal sector, agriculture, and home-based work, and as such, receive mostly low and irregular wages.
In the formal sector, Pakistani working women are more discriminated against, e.g., in terms of pay, compared to most countries. The International Labour Organization estimated that in 2018, Pakistan’s raw gender pay gap was 34.5%, against the world average of 15.8%; its factor-weighted gender pay gap was 36.3% against the world average of 18.8%. Female literacy rate consistently improved, from 35.4% in 2005 to 51.9% in 2021, but was significantly below the male literacy rate of 64.1% in 2005 and 73.4% in 2021. Although rising consistently, the mean years of schooling among females was less than half that of males in 2005 to 2011. The gap substantially narrowed down in 2019 as female mean years of schooling was recorded at 3.9 years and that of males at 5.0 years.
