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Clouds over rooftop solar: Net Metering users could lose key incentives

by AMG
May 13, 2025
in Energy
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Clouds over rooftop solar: Net Metering users could lose key incentives
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ISLAMABAD: The Cabinet Division has approved the resubmission of the Net Metering summary, which had previously been deferred by the Federal Cabinet due to strong public opposition.

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), in its meeting held on March 13, 2025, had approved the proposed amendments to the Net Metering Regulations based on a summary from the Power Division. However, when the matter was presented before the Federal Cabinet as an additional agenda item, it was deferred. The Cabinet directed that broader stakeholder consultations be conducted, particularly as the Pakistan Solar Association (PSA) had voiced concerns over not being included in the consultation process.

While it remains unclear what new buyback rate has been proposed, it is widely anticipated that the Power Division aims to revise the rate downward — possibly from Rs 27 per unit to as low as Rs 10 per unit. The contract validity period for net metering consumers is expected to remain capped at five years, with periodic reviews of the buyback rate.

In a related development, the World Bank has agreed to provide Technical Assistance for a nationwide rooftop solar assessment through the Economic Affairs Division (EAD). The Power Division had requested Non-Lending Technical Assistance for this purpose.

In its response, the World Bank appreciated the Power Division’s proactive approach to using technical expertise to guide policy and regulatory reforms. The Bank, through its Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), will support the following initiatives:

Mapping and analyzing rooftop solar PV development across Pakistan, including identifying key growth trends and forecasting expansion.

Assessing grid integration challenges posed by increased distributed generation.

Informing policy and regulatory adjustments around distributed generation incentives, tariff structures, and the financial viability of Distribution Companies (DISCOs), while promoting sustainable adoption of solar energy.

According to the Power Division, under the current net metering framework, consumers are able to avoid paying fixed charges. This, combined with higher capacity payments (CPP), declining energy sales, and lower fixed charge recovery, has contributed to rising electricity tariffs.

In FY 2024, net metering led to an estimated sales reduction of 3.2 billion kWh, causing an additional financial burden of approximately Rs 101 billion. This translated into an average increase of Rs 0.9 per kWh in consumer tariffs. The situation is projected to worsen by FY 2034, with an anticipated sales reduction of 18.8 billion kWh, leading to an added burden of Rs 545 billion and an average increase of Rs 3.6 per kWh in tariffs.

The Power Division also noted that the draft Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025 has treated over 8,000 MW of net-metered solar capacity additions as “forced additions,” which could undermine the principle of least-cost generation planning — a cornerstone of Pakistan’s energy strategy.

Ends

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